Call Me When 3D Printing Becomes Practical

This was originally posted on 1/4/2013, but I'm still a skeptical grump about 3D printing.

Over the holidays I finally got around to reading Wired's effusive article about Makerbot and the coming 3D printing revolution. I get it: 3D printing is going to take over the world. It's going to eventually let me download a car, and that's very cool. But in the interim, 3D printing appears to be nothing more than a distraction.

I want to own useful, practical, and cost-effective things. Making a plastic belt buckle, or RC plane wing, or clothes hanger isn't terribly compelling. And sit-around items like action figures don't meet the practicality rubric. Even if I were interested in making these things, I wouldn't want them made of plastic. For most US consumers, plastic is a poor substitute for the metals and alloys that we have come to expect in quality consumer devices. The real clincher though, is the ready availability of superior substitutes. I'm busy enough that learning to use a CAD program to create a plastic sub-component of an equivalent metal device I can purchase in a fully functional form for $10 on Amazon just doesn't make much sense. And I'm guessing that I'm not alone here.

The revolution in 3D printing is going to come when disinterested folks like me can download, customize, and effortlessly create complex products from the comfort of my own home without having to become proficient in CAD software and the vagueries of 3D printing hardware.  Right now 3D printing is like the personal computer market in the late 80s; it has explosive growth potential and the possibility to disrupt our system of commerce right down the foundation, but it's all but inaccessible to anyone but engineers sporting the modern equivalents of pocket protectors.

I bothered to right this not to slam companies like Makerbot or tear down gushing writeups like the one I read in Wired. Makerbot is doing great work and Wired always gushes about new tech as though it will single-handedly bring about the singularity tomorrow. But until I can download that car I was talking about, articles about 3D printing are just distractions.

Hypothetical Number Inflation

I read a lot of Hacker News and it always strikes how big the numbers are in other people's blog posts. When people write about a big exit on HN, they talk about $100M not $500,000.

When I was in college, and especially when I was running my first startup, reading those articles made me feel like a failure. From what I could tell, the world was populated exclusively by companies "struggling" to break $10M in yearly sales, and founders learning how to manage similarly "modest" liquidity events.

Now that I've been blogging for a few years, I can say from experience that most of those numbers are bogus. Survivorship bias aside, bloggers suffer from what I like to call Hypothetical Number Inflation.

When I write about a topic, I want to make a point, and the point is very rarely to be realistic about ordinary business metrics. I might want to prove that the relationship between effort and reward is correlative not causative, or that bootstrapping your first business makes sense. These are opinions that I've thought through and believe, but it helps to rally some ballpark numbers to make the case.

And therein lies the problem: in the course of arguing a point, it behooves me as a writer to push my numbers to the logical extreme to avoid losing my readers to unrelated quantitative niggling.

If I want to provide an example of a successful business in a blog post, I want the example to be unequivocal. If I choose a number that's too low, the effect is like Dr. Evil asking for 1 MILLION dollars, readers stop and think "wait a minute, $1,000,000 isn't successful to me." When that happens, I lose that reader before they hear the entirety of my argument.

Since the HN crowd is so affluent (or at least says that it's affluent), writers that want to be taken seriously need to choose hypothetical numbers that boggle the mind and leave no doubt as to as to the writer's intent.

So, if you get frustrated when you read authors talking about "small" exists in the mid-8 figures or "low" executive compensation in the high 7 figures, remember that these numbers don't represent the median, but the extreme. Better yet, decide for yourself how many zeros constitute success or failure and ignore writers like me.